A professor of history at American University who has precisely forecasted the result of every presidential election given that 1984 informed The Washington Post that 2016 was the hardest election to anticipate yet. However, he has actually predicting the next President — Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Predicting The Next President
Donald Trump has actually made this the most difficult election to evaluate since 1984. We have never ever before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held from 1860.
The secrets, which are described in depth in Lichtman’s book “We’re a bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you anticipate will win in November?
- Party Mandate – how well they performed in the midterms. They got squashed
- Contest – there is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination
- Incumbency – the sitting president is not running
- 3rd party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change – no significant policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act
- Social unrest
- Foreign/military success – no major smashing diplomacy success
- Foreign/military failure
- Incumbent charisma – Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt
- Challenger charisma
Judgments on the Performance of the Party Holding the White House
“The secrets are 13 true/false concerns, where an answer of ‘true’ always prefers the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case, the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to show the underlying theory that elections are mostly judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 points are false– that is, they break the party in power– they lose. If less than six are false, the party in the authority gets four more years.”
Still, Trump is such an unusual candidate that he might break the American political mold that has actually held for decades.
“We’ve never before seen a candidate who’s spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others,” Lichtman said. “He’s the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along.”
He kept in mind that Trump has actually likewise taken other doubtful steps, like welcoming Russian President Vladimir Putin, welcoming Russian hackers to meddle in the United States election, and threatening to blow Iranian ship of the water if they came too near to United States vessels.
“Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, or lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it,” Lichtman stated.
It appears like a narrow triumph for Trump, Lichtman said, and the secret is Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, who is the ballot in double-digits now. But that may move by Election Day.
“As people realize the choice is not Gary Johnson, the only option is in between Trump and Clinton, those Gary Johnson fans might move far from Johnson and towards Clinton, especially those millennials,” Lichtman said.
So actually, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would state, more to the point, they look to a generic Republican success, since I believe that provided the unmatched nature of the Trump candidateship and Trump himself, he might defy all chances and lose even though the decision of history remains in his favor. So this would likewise suggest, you understand, the possibility this election could go in either case. No one ought to be complacent, no matter who you’re for, you gotta go out and vote.
Do you think that Trump is not a traditional Republican — certainly not an establishment Republican, from a rhetorical or policy point of view– contributes to that uncertainty over where he harmonizes the core method for evaluating the points?
I think the truth that he’s a little a radical, and nobody understands where he bases on policy, due to the fact that he’s continuously shifting. I defy anyone to state exactly what his immigration policy is, what his policy is on banning Muslims, or whoever, from going into the United States, that’s certainly an element. However it’s more his history in Trump University, the Trump Institute, his personal bankruptcies, the charitable structure, of enriching himself at the expense of others, and all of the lies and dangerous things he’s stated in this project, that might make him a precedent-shattering candidate.
It’s interesting, I don’t use the surveys, as I’ve simply discussed, but the surveys have incredibly just recently tightened up. Clinton is less ahead than she was previously. However it’s not since Trump is increasing, it’s because Clinton is falling. He’s still around 39 percent in the surveys. You can’t win if you can’t crack 40 percent.
Trump has been surging lately in the polls. However, last month his Democratic opposition, Hillary Clinton, was far ahead.
Other less unpredictable measures of predicting the election put Clinton out in front. An Electoral College map released last month from the University of Virginia Center for Politics predicted Clinton to win the election by a landslide.